It may just be that I have a strange inner circle, but this is a topic that has come up quite a bit in regular discussion, and it really is an interesting thing to think about. Coming into 1845, Texas, and the rest of the land acquired by the United States in the treaty of Guadalupe Hildago, was a massive plot of land with just as massive an amount of potential. Sprawling ranches and seemingly infinite oil wells made this gigantic section of southwestern North America a dream for settlers and businessmen alike, but what if The Republic of Texas had stayed independent?

Would as many settlers, and as much money have still made its way south without the security of “statehood”?

How would relations between the US and Texas continued to grow or decline if the fiercely independent spirit of Texans had won out and annexation not been favored?

How far delayed from actual history would the joining of Texas and the U.S. have been? If it were even to happen at all?

These questions are fun ‘what ifs’, but the truth is that they really all could have been the exact opposite questions asked by an alternate version of 2018 Texans and Americans if only the first presidential election of Texas had gone the other way. Of course, former General Sam Houston won the election on the idea that Texas should pursue statehood and join the United States, but his opposition Mirabeau Lamar was very popular among early Texans and was majorly in favor of keeping the nation independent.

So while the thought now is just a what if, it truly almost happened.

Anyway, my thoughts on how things would have gone down if Texas hadn’t joined the United States:

First, Texas would have had to have been able to defeat the attempt of Mexico to reclaim its lost property, which would have been no easy task. The help given by the U.S. in pushing Mexico back when it made that attempt was the biggest reason Texas became a part of the U.S when it did. But assuming the proud Texan army could have repelled Mexico, they could have and likely would have simply stayed independent.

Second, we would have continued to grow quickly, and would still have such a massive amount of land available that the country would have no issue thriving in multiple industries. These advantages would have made it easy for early Texas to stay independent and even thrive. For how long though to me has always been the question.

If Texas didn’t join the U.S. in 1845, the easy assumption is that it would have become a part of the Confederacy at some point during the Civil War. The majority of settlers in Texas after it won its independence were from the southern United States and still held strong loyalties to their home regions. That loyalty to me would have made it nearly impossible for a still free Texas to not join the Confederacy and fight alongside relatives still living back home. At a minimum, distance from the north would preclude Texas from joining the Union side, but we all know there were far more reasons than just distance for Texas naturally joining the Confederacy.

Joining the Confederacy as an outside and independent nation though likely would have been a major issue after the war ended with the south losing, and I’d imagine the only way that situation plays out is with Texas being annexed and viewed at least slightly less favorable than the other southern states. If Texas had managed to stay independent all the way up to the Civil War, then I think this would have been the most likely time when they would have joined the United States. After the 1860s, I see the chances of Texas joining the U.S. getting smaller and smaller with each passing year.

Reconstruction in the south, and especially the disdain held by southerners toward the north would have made everyone in the nation-state of Texas leery of foregoing independence and becoming another state. Why join a country when joining would mean you would be looked down on by half of the population? OH AND IF TEXAS HAD NEVER PARTICIPATED IN THE CIVIL WAR THEY COULD STILL HAVE SLAVES DURING RECONSTRUCTION. While they likely would have abolished slavery on their own in the couple decades after the Civil War anyway, the population of Texas certainly wouldn’t have voluntarily joined a country that would make part of its industry illegal.

This is why it becomes so difficult to see Texas joining the U.S. after the Civil War for quite some time. Being able to continue making independent decisions would have been seen as a massive benefit for the politicians and general population of Texas. Besides, Texans have always enjoyed doing things their own way as much as possible. It would have been natural to continue to want independence after having had it for over thirty years come 1870.

I don’t see Texas joining because of either the Spanish-American War or WWI because even the U.S. population didn’t really want to be involved in either affair. While their American brothers were still dying in both conflicts, I just can’t see Texans wanting to join a country just to then have to be sent off to fight its war thousands of miles away.

From there, there are three major events that I believe could all have forced Texas to join the U.S.

First is the Great Depression. The U.S. was on the verge of becoming the strongest country on the planet, and it was devastated by the Great Depression. Texas by itself would have been hit even harder. Oklahoma was the start of the dust bowl, and life in Texas during the 1930s was similar to our northern neighbor. The currency would have plummeted in value and much like the independent small nation states in Europe, Texas would have likely struggled to barely stay afloat. So joining the U.S at that time, even if only to get marginally better, would have been a very likely possibility.

The next would have been after 7 Dec 1941 Pearl Harbor. Yes, the U.S. was involved in The Great War almost thirty years prior, but this was an entirely new thing for the U.S. as they were actually attacked on their own soil. Even over 100 years after Texas became a country at this point, the lineage ties of Texans to US citizens would still be strong and persistent. The desire to fight alongside their American brothers and sisters after the first major attack against the USA since the War of 1812 would likely have been intense enough for Texans to want to join officially with the United States and assist the rest of the country by becoming a part of it. The big part of Texas joining with the United States at this point though is the state would most likely actually be accepted into the union here. The reason for joining would be to stand and fight together, not to be helped out under the larger umbrella of the US, so Texas becoming a part of the US would have been a fairly simple and easy process come the start of WWII.

After WWII the only time I can see Texas joining with the US would be during Eisenhower’s presidency, as joining would have led to the largest uptake in infrastructure and industry Texas had ever seen with the creation of the International highway system and housing boom the GI bill created. Selfish reason for Texas to join, but the US used this infrastructure increase as leverage to make individual states adopt federal laws in the real history of the country, so it would be an easy sell on both sides of this joining.

Somehow however, if Texas had not joined the US by the end of the 1950s, I can’t see the two countries joining anytime from 1960 to the present day. Not joining by then would have meant the Texas economy and government was thriving on its own, that no large attack on American soil would have brought the two sides together, and that the isolationist culture still ingrained in Texans today would have been so deeply rooted after 124 years as a sovereign independent nation that Texas would never join the US by either treaty or annexation.

This would have taken a monumental effort by Texas citizens over the course of that 124 years up to 1960, and the pressure to join at every point would have been immense. We obviously joined the US by treaty in 1845 and have thrived as a state since then so I can’t and won’t second guess the benefit of Texas being one of the fifty states. Texans are proud of their state heritage and will forever represent proudly their home, but we are also proud Americans, who will forever volunteer en masse to fight and serve for their country.

God bless Texas, and god bless the United States of America. Hooah